Monday, July 07, 2003

A WELL WRITTEN EXAMINATION OF THE ARMED OPPOSITION WE FACE IN IRAQ.

There generally are three key measures of military operations: duration, intensity and scope. It now appears that the U.S. military -- and just about everybody else -- miscalculated on the first two parameters: the postwar fighting is lasting longer than was generally expected, and it is becoming more intense, not less.

About 28 U.S. soldiers died in Iraq in June, more than twice the death toll for May. Many of those casualties occurred in vehicle accidents, but soldiers in Iraq say that even those crashes are attributable in part to the fighting, because Humvee drivers often travel at unsafe speeds to lessen the chance of being ambushed.

The third measure, scope, is murkier. Officials and experts are debating whether the war is expanding geographically and demographically, from just Sunnis and Hussein's Baath Party diehards to others, such as Shiites and Islamic extremists and the average Iraqi on the street.

Its a good read. See it all here.

But let me just say that this debate, very much as the one before and during the heavy conflict, will include opinions covering the complete spectrum from best-case to worst-case. We saw this especially in what Vice President Cheney called "retired military embedded in news studios".

And the press tends to focus on the worst-case.

Take opinions with a grain of salt.

Oh...including mine.

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