I LIKE THIS LINE OF THOUGHT

But Jack Kelly, writing for The Washington Times, adds some perspective to the daily casualty count, and in the process, predicts that victory in Iraq is closer than we think.

The outcome of the first reported battle since the end of major combat operations in Iraq suggests victory may be closer than most Americans dare to hope.

Iraqis wearing the black garb of the Fedayeen Saddam ambushed two convoys carrying cash to banks in Samarra, a small town in the Sunni Triangle about 60 miles northwest of Baghdad. The attacks were well planned and coordinated. The attackers were brave. The attackers died like flies.

The U.S. military claims 54 of an estimated 80 attackers were killed.

Another eight were taken prisoner. U.S. casualties were six wounded, most of them lightly. ''Coalition firepower overwhelmed the attackers,'' Master Sgt. Robert Cargie of the 4th Infantry Division told the New York Times.

The engagements in Samarra make it plain the the guerrillas are unable successfully to mount even platoon-size actions against U.S. forces. Why did they attempt it?

Martin Sieff of UPI thinks it was a premature escalation based on rising confidence. ''The attacks took place in a predominantly Sunni city and their scale reflects the confidence and rapid learning curve of the guerrillas,'' Mr. Sieff wrote. ''After inflicting about 80 dead on U.S. forces in November, they felt confident enough to attempt a far more ambitious kind of operation.''

But because seeking a standup fight with the U.S. military is a stupid thing to do, Stratfor, a private intelligence service, thinks the attacks more likely were motivated by desperation. ''The Iraqi guerrillas realize they are running out of time,'' Stratfor said. ''The U.S.-Kurdish-Shi'ite alliance is becoming operational and the guerrillas' read of the political landscape is that they are about to be caught between a rock and a hard place. In addition, the guerrillas understand that their resources are limited and that attrition, over time, plays against them.''

Emphasis mine.