HOWARD DEAN: SADDAM'S BEST FRIEND?

Don't know if you've stopped to consider it - but Howard Dean just might possibly be Saddam's best American friend.

The logic is this: The top selling "luxury" item in Iraq since the fall of Saddam has been the TV satellite dish. Which means that more Iraqis have access to world news than ever before. So it is fair to assume that any Iraqi who cares can find out the news of the United States presidential election. As to the frontrunners, an Iraqi may want to know what are their positions vis a vis the question of Iraq.

From President Bush they have heard "We did not charge hundreds of miles into the heart of Iraq, pay a bitter cost in casualties, defeat a brutal dictator, and liberate 25 million people only to retreat before a band of thugs and assassins."

Probable interpretation by the Iraqis...Mr. Bush says America will stay as long as it takes.

From candidate Dean they have heard "I opposed the war in Iraq, and I'm against spending another $87 billion there."

Probable interpretation by the Iraqis...Mr. Dean will pull America out of Iraq as soon as possible.

Consider the history of Iraq following Operation Desert Storm. The administration of then President Bush (41) encouraged an uprising by the Shia Muslims against Saddam Hussein. As has been well documented the Shia did rise up - anticipating support from the USA, but that support was not forthcoming.

Result: Saddam put down this revolt with violence and killed God knows how many people.

Now - consider that no one can prove Saddam is dead, and in fact conventional wisdom says he is alive and living somewhere in Iraq.

And no one can predict who gets elected president of the US in 2004.

So no one can predict if the soldiers will stay until the job is done, or will be pulled out.

So...to the average Iraqi 120,000 US soldiers stand between them and Saddam. So long as Saddam is unaccounted for, the soldiers are their only protection. Once the soldiers leave, Saddam could possibly return with a vengeance.

And so, since that is a possibility, in the mind of the average Iraqi...perhaps the safest thing to do is to hedge one's bets. Because no one wants to suffer the wrath of Saddam and the Ba'athists if one can be identified as a collaborator with the US Soldiers during their stay in Iraq.

And so, for these on-the-fence Iraqis common sense says just stay away from the Americans. Don't work for them, don't cooperate with them, and certainly under no circumstances provide them with information about the activities of Ba'athist remnants waging the guerilla war against the US Soldiers.

And so Abdul, an on-the-fence Iraqi who has infomation about these thugs, information that - in the hands of the US Soldiers could prevent attacks and result in arrests of Ba'athists...Abdul just keeps his mouth shut.

And because the Soldiers don't get the information the attack is not prevented and US Soldiers die.

And Saddam is very happy about it. And he grins because his best American buddy made it all possible.