AL-QAEDA, JIHAD, IVY SERPENT AND BAGHDAD BOB?

The story is here.

A group calling itself a wing of al-Qaeda claimed responsibility Sunday for attacks on American troops in Iraq, as U.S. forces killed five Iraqis in raids aimed at preventing such violence during two Iraqi holidays this week.

The claim, made in an audiotape aired on Dubai-based Al Arabiya television, insisted that allies of deposed Iraqi President Saddam Hussein had played no role in the recent attacks.

The tape, whose authenticity could not be verified, also warned of a new attack in the coming days that would "divide the back of America completely."

Concern about intensified violence prompted the U.S. Army's 4th Infantry Division to launch a new series of raids Sunday for Saddam sympathizers whom U.S. military officials hold responsible for the attacks...

Today is the anniversary of the 1958 coup that toppled the Iraqi monarchy, and Thursday is the anniversary of the 1968 coup that brought the Baath Party to power.

"Intelligence that we've gathered has told us that former Baath Party leadership, subversive elements, are planning to attack tomorrow and on the 17th," Maj. Josslyn Aberle, a 4th Infantry Division spokeswoman, said Sunday.

The release Sunday of the tape, by someone claiming to represent the previously unknown Armed Islamic Movement for al-Qaeda, the Fallujah branch, added to the jitters over the anniversaries.

"I swear by God no one from his [Saddam's] followers carried out any jihad operations like he claims. They are a result of our brothers in jihad," said the taped voice, which was not identified.

There is a lot to consider here.

Let us begin with the tape. Does it come from an Iraq-based cell of al-Qaeda? Well, it is either yes or no.

If it is yes then it would be independent confirmation of Secretary Powells assertions before the UN security council in January.

And therefore means that nothing has changed from the perspective of those prosecuting the war because they believed all along the group existed in Iraq.

OK - but what of the claims on the tape that the attacks have all been the work of al-Qaeda and not of Saddam Hussein's loyalists?

Note the language: "no one from his [Saddam's] followers carried out any jihad operations like he claims".

First off, like who claims? I've seen nothing to indicate any one taking claim for the operations except this tape.

Secondly, the language is absolute..."no one...carried out any..."

What is the likelihood of that? Recognizing such absolutism may be a common aspect of arab rhetoric, at face value the statement attempts to "prove a negative". Highly doubtful.

So, what is the most likely case here (where we are assuming the tape to be from whom it claims to be)?

The principle of Occam's Razor suggests that this group might be a small part of the attacks, or even simply claiming credit where none is due.

And the result of this line of logic? One might hope to gain "esteem" for doing battle with the USA, and indeed one might so achieve. However, another result would be to expose your organization (and your home town!) to the world, much of which still doubted that there was an Iraq/al-Qaeda connection.

Net result: A lot more folks looking for these guys with intent to do them harm.

So - how probable is this line of reasoning? Not very, in my opinon.

Which takes us back to the question, did this tape come from who it claims to come from? If this time we answer no, then we need to ask who did send it?

Well, it appears that one intended result of the tape is to ease the pressure off the Ba'athists since it claims they have been behind none of the attacks.

And who would have the most to gain by easing the pressure off the Ba'athists? Hmmm - well, that would be the Ba'athists.

Consider also that this week represents the anniversaries of "the anniversary of the 1958 coup that toppled the Iraqi monarchy, and...the anniversary of the 1968 coup that brought the Baath Party to power".

Intelligence says this will be a week of heightened foolishness on their part. Indeed Operation Ivy Serpent (Ivy, because the 4th ID is called the Ivy division) anticipates just such increased attacks.

From the Ba'athists perspective this is exactly the time you want the USA to go off searching for a group that the USA has always believed to be in Iraq (and which Saddam Hussein denied ever was), and take its eyes of of the Ba'athists.

Saving space (and your patience) here so I won't go through the logic of the tape originator being anyone else.

In the end, it seems to me the simplest explanation that the Ba'athists are behind the tape.

Finally, it tickles me to no end that the last transmission we got from Baghdad Bob was from Abu-Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates.

The tape was aired by a Dubai based television station.

I'll give you one guess where Dubai is...