CIVIC CALM IN IRAQ

But there are signs that after each new horror inflicted by these forces of destabilization, which appear to be coordinating their deadly work, a fragile equilibrium of civic calm returns in a country that has known only war and tyranny for the past three decades.

There has been calm, for example, in Najaf since the barbaric bombing there on Aug. 29 of the Shiite central mosque and shrine of Ali. Ayatollah Mohammed Bakr Hakim and 124 others died in that blast, which seemed planned by their killers to foment sectarian strife between the country's Shiite majority and the Sunni minority that was Saddam's base of support. But the Shiites have not sought bloody revenge or taken to the streets in sustained protest.

Why is a matter of speculation. "Our conversations with moderate Shiite leaders since Aug. 29 have been extraordinarily free of bitterness and rancor. They would never say so directly, but perhaps this tragedy has emphasized for them the reality that the occupation is not the biggest problem they face," a member of the Coalition Provisional Authority office in Baghdad says.

That does not mean the occupation authority will not be criticized by those same leaders in public for failing to protect Hakim -- even though the CPA provided weapons, funds for training and hiring guards and other logistical help to the governor of Najaf weeks before the explosion. Shiite leaders had asked that U.S. troops not be stationed near the mosque, according to CPA officials.

In a related development, FBI explosive experts have turned up evidence linking the Najaf explosion to the suicide bombing of the United Nations compound on Aug. 19 and to the Aug. 7 attack on the Jordanian embassy, both in Baghdad, according to one U.S. official. "They think they see the signature of one bomb-maker in the three attacks," this official told me.

That raises serious questions about the extent of support for the insurrection, which could be dealt a severe blow by the capture of a lone bomb-maker. The occupation authorities also see hope in a new effort to give tribes in the Sunni heartland a stake in protecting oil pipelines and other facilities from sabotage.